Election Recap

 

Federal elections won by Flemish nationalists and French speaking socialists: Belgium heading for a historical coalition government?

 

On June 13, the Belgian federal elections took place. The direct cause for the elections was the decision of the Flemish liberals to step out of the government due to a lack of progress on State Reform. The results were clear and historical: Flemish nationalists (N-VA) won in Flanders, socialists (PS) won in Wallonia.

In the meantime, party President of N-VA, Bart De Wever, has been appointed by the King as “informateur” and is examining the possibilities for a government coalition and agreement. De Wever already announced that the next government will focus mainly on dealing with the financial problems and State Reform.

At first sight, N-VA and PS seem to be willing to overcome their fundamental differences in opinion on economic and institutional issues. However, the challenge is risky because both Di Rupo and De Wever are aware of the place they can take in the Belgian history books if they succeed, but also of their responsibility of taking Belgium into a real regime crisis if they fail.

In Summary

• There are two big winners of the elections: the Flemish nationalists, N-VA, in Flanders and the socialists of PS in Wallonia. N-VA becomes the biggest political party in Parliament (with 27 seats) and the socialists will be the biggest political family (Francophone + Flemish socialists) with 39 seats.
• The Flemish socialists (sp.a) lost one seat, but they will probably benefit from the victory of their Francophone sister party, which will play a major role in the next government.
• The Liberals lost on both sides of the country. In Flanders, voters apparently did not appreciate the decision of the Flemish liberals (Open VLD) to leave the government due to a lack of progress on State Reform. On the Walloon side, resigning Vice Prime Minister, Didier Reynders, suffered from a weakened image in his position as Finance Minister, but also as party President of the MR.
• For the first time in history, the Flemish Christian-democrats (CD&V) obtained less than 20%, reaching rock bottom. They were criticized for the instability of their government in the past three years. The smaller French speaking sister party (cdH) also lost votes, but to a (much) lesser extent.
• The Flemish Green party (Groen!) won one seat, whereas the Francophone greens could not repeat their success from the 2009 regional elections.

Formation of a New Government

After the elections, the King immediately started consultations in view of forming a new government. First, he received the presidents of the two winning parties (N-VA and PS). The Presidents of the other political parties followed afterwards. These consultations have led to the appointment of Bart De Wever as a so called “informateur”. The “informateur” examines with which coalition the “formateur” should attempt to set up a government program.

As soon as De Wever finishes his assignment, Elio Di Rupo is generally believed to become “formateur” and (most probably) the next Belgian Prime Minister. This would not be a surprise as the Prime Minister generally comes from the biggest “political family”, which in this case is the socialist family.

Composition of the Next Government

The buzzword most accepted is the so called “reflection coalition”, which means that the composition of the federal government would be a reflection of the current regional governments. According to such a scenario, the composition of the government at regional and at federal level would be similar. Thus, the federal government would contain the following political parties: Flemish nationalists (N-VA), Christian-democrats (CD&D, cdH), socialists (PS, sp.a), Ecolo. This coalition would have a 2/3rd majority (100 seats out of 150), which is needed to approve State Reform. By also adding the Flemish Greens, the majority would become even more comfortable. A 2/3 majority will be considered, but is not absolutely necessary, according to De Wever, who believes parties could approve State Reform without being part of the government. Whether the liberals would participate in the government is still unclear, however, and chances are low.

Further, De Wever claims that he is not aiming to become Prime Minister of Belgium. He believes that him being in that position would jeopardize a favorable outcome on State Reform. Moreover, if Di Rupo becomes Prime Minister, then the signal is clear: the Francophones would have to take the initiative on State Reform.

In order to have efficient and effective negotiations on State Reform, De Wever and his party insist on forming one single, Flemish block. De Wever hopes to finish his assignment within two weeks. He thinks that a new government should be in place by September, after summer break. Permanent President of the European Council and former Prime Minister of Belgium, Herman Van Rompuy, warns against government negotiations that would take too long, noting that this would raise questions again about the crisis in Belgium and would endanger the stability of the country.

Elaboration of a Government Agreement

It is already known that Di Rupo and De Wever agreed on the core of a government agreement:

1. Deal with the financial/budgetary problems
2. Realize institutional reform and
3. Strengthen the socio-economic environment.

A big State Reform would, in other words, become possible in exchange for guaranteeing social security, which is a socialist top priority and would imply a need for additional taxes. According to this scenario, we can expect in the coming years a left wing economic policy (in favor of PS) with possibly a solution for the electoral district “Brussel-Halle-Vilvoorde” and a shift of power to the regions (in favor of N-VA). The latter would allow the regions to develop their own, distinctive (economic) policy with their own accents (center right in Flanders and center left in Wallonia). This might be the ultimate compromise.

Conservative Right in the North, Conservative Left in the South

The elections of 2010 clearly resulted in two strong winners: the N-VA in the north and PS in the south. Especially the outspoken victory of Flemish nationalists in Flanders gave a very strong signal. Bart De Wever convinced voters from basically every political formation. All other political parties lost votes and the three traditional parties (socialists, liberals and Christian-democrats) do not even form a majority anymore.

The three Flemish, separatist political parties (N-VA, Vlaams Belang and Lijst Dedecker) obtained in total 47.24% of the votes. Opinion polls underline, however, that less than 20% of the Flemish people would really be in favor of an independent Flanders. Apart from factors as the disillusionment in the government of Leterme II, election fatigue and protest behavior, N-VA succeeded in convincing the Flemish people that it is able to solve State Reform. This shows that on the Flemish side, State Reform is a general concern. It also demonstrates that the N-VA is divided in two wings: a so called “north” wing that is quite moderate and contains former voters for the Christian-democrats and liberals and a “south wing” that is much more radical and consists of former voters for extremist parties such as Vlaams Belang. It will be interesting to see in which way these differences will influence party positions.

On the Walloon side, the socialist party has regained its historical comfort-position. Elio Di Rupo succeeded during his campaign to also reassure the traditional electorate and to convince those who were afraid that the country would be handed over to “adventurers”. His electoral speech regarding institutional reform as well as socio-economic plans came across as very balanced and reasonable and caught on well in these times of economic crisis.

Reform or the End of Belgium?

The gap between N-VA and PS is very big when it comes to communitarian reform, as well as socio-economic policy. In short, De Wever ultimately wants an independent Flanders, Di Rupo wants to reinforce the Federal State. De Wever is in favor of saving in times of crisis, Di Rupo wants to continue to spend more money, especially in the area of social security (health care). The water seems very deep.

The fact that the King was able to quickly appoint De Wever as “informateur” might indicate that both winners are serious and that the big gap between them does not seem unbridgeable. It is true that Bart De Wever and Elio Di Rupo do not really know each other personally. Although good personal relationships between political opponents is no guarantee for an agreement, it can help.

The mission of Bart De Wever as “informateur” consists of gaining insights in the contours of a possible government agreement and composition. This supposes that De Wever can already reach at this stage an agreement in principle and, above all, puts (some of) his cards on the table. Because one fundamental question remains open: how far is N-VA willing to go in order to find a compromise on State Reform? The N-VA negotiator is faced with the challenge to score some points for his party on the one hand and to make a possible compromise digestible for his party supporters on the other hand.