Belgium 101 for Expats

 

Explaining the Current Political Situation

 

What Happened?

Monday evening, the 26th of April: The King accepted the resignation of Leterme II. The government fell because of a lack of confidence between the different political parties. The immediate cause? The pressure exerted by Flemish liberals (Open VLD) on the government to find a final compromise on the electoral district “Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde” (BHV) and State Reform. Flemish liberals, under the leadership of the young Alexander De Croo, found that despite the compromise proposals of former Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene, there still was a profound lack of political will to conclude this matter within a short deadline and decided to leave the government.

Even the attempt of Didier Reynders (MR), resigning Minister of Finance, to get the political parties (French and Dutch speaking) around the table again to further discuss BHV and State Reform, as asked by the King, did not work out. He considered the situation hopeless and unfeasible after the Flemish liberals firmly stuck to their “deadline”.

The fall of the government was a fact and elections will be held on June 13.

Consequences for the Belgian Economy

Although BHV and State Reform were continuously hanging over the government heads, Leterme II worked on important policy reforms. Some of these reforms, such as in the area of justice and pensions, risk to be questioned and even postponed again.

The same goes for decisions already taken by the government but not yet approved by Parliament, like the one on the postponement of the nuclear phase-out. The social partners, i.e employer federations and trade unions, have already expressed their concern about the political events. The Federation of Enterprises in Belgium (VBO/FEB) added to this worry that the political crisis could have severe consequences for the investments in Belgium and the image of the country abroad. (See Unions and Competitiveness in Belgium). This is especially the case for potentially new investors for which political or institutional insecurity can eliminate Belgium from their radar. Concrete examples of this however often do not get public.

Big Disaster or No Big Deal for Belgium’s EU Presidency?

Opinions are divided. There are several reasons to believe that Belgium will be able to preside the Council as foreseen: the EU Presidency is prepared years in advance, in cooperation with the preceding and following presidents, the so called “trio-Presidency”. A Presidency generally carries on the work of the previous President and thus ensures continuity. In this sense, Belgium can swim with the European legislative stream. Also, the resigning Belgian government has the power to deal with EU-Presidency “in current affairs”. So practically, Belgium’s EU Presidency will be in a sense “business as usual”. And what the political strategies and orientations are about the Council – and particularly Belgium – can count on permanent President of the Council, Herman Van Rompuy.

On the other hand, the EU needs strong leadership, especially in these times where Europe needs to deal with economic, budgetary and climate difficulties. Some fear that Belgium will not be able to weigh enough on the debates among 27 Member States. In short, the latest crisis damages Belgium’s reputation and risks that one can only speak scornfully of Belgium.

Are Elections Today the Solution?

Whereas the upcoming elections are seen by some (such as the Flemish liberals) as absolutely necessary to put an end to the paralyzed government of Leterme, others do not perceive new elections with great enthusiasm. First, elections in times of economic difficulties are not expedient. Second, one fears that, given the political chaos, citizens will make more and more anti-political or even apolitical choices. Example of this tendency is the popular group on facebook “no, we do not want to vote in June”. Third, organizing elections without a solution for BHV causes constitutional problems and might lead to judicial chaos. Fourth, also after the elections and with a new government, a solution for BHV and State Reform is not guaranteed. There is, however, one big advantage: if elections are organized this year, apart from communal elections in 2012, no other elections (regional-federal-European) would take place in the coming four years. Political work can (at least in theory) uninterruptedly continue until 2014.

What Can We Expect from the Election Campaign?

In the run-up to the elections, more than ever, political parties will be asked to take a position on State Reform. Since 2007, communitarian problems paralyze the functioning of the government. A solution is urgent. Political parties will need to explain what they think of State Reform and elaborate their plans to further reform the country. The different approach of Walloon versus Flemish parties might come out in very clear terms: Flemish parties are in favor of extensive State Reform whereas Francophone parties strive (so far) for modest reform.

But of course other themes will be discussed as well during the campaign, such as justice, social security, unemployment, pension system, asylum and migration. Most Flemish and a growing number of Francophone political parties want to solve the communitarian issue first and finally “take care of those problems about which people really are concerned”.

Who Will Win the Elections?

The political atmosphere is very bad. Political parties are pointing fingers at each other:

• Dutch speaking parties are blaming French speaking parties for lacking political will to find a quick solution to BHV/State Reform;
• Flemish liberals are blamed for having caused this political chaos and behaving especially in their own (electoral) interest;
• The Francophone federalists, FDF, led by Olivier Maingain and partner of francophone liberals (MR), are perceived as inflexible, radical and arrogant, even by the Francophone socialists (PS);
• Flemish Christian democrats and particularly Yves Leterme is seen as the one(s) who were unable to lead a stable government.
It is very difficult to predict how voters will react to this “blame and shame game” and who will be the losers and winners of the elections in the end. According to some opinion polls, Flemish nationalists (N-VA) who are in fine in favor of an “independent Flanders”, would become the big winner and the socialists (PS) at Francophone side. The question will be whether the federal political landscape after the elections will help to mitigate political contrasts or, on the contrary, increase radicalization and fragmentation. One thing is for sure though, State Reform needs to be agreed on by Francophone and Flemish side, so negotiations are imperative. Nobody knows what will happen if (some) political parties would refuse to negotiate.

Leterme III?

Political parties are quickly putting together their political rosters. Names like Joëlle Milquet (Christian democrat, cdH), Elio Di Rupo, Paul Magnette (socialist, PS) and Didier Reynders (liberal, MR) make up the French-speaking side. On the Flemish side, the names include Alexander De Croo (liberals, Open VLD), Bart De Wever (Flemish nationalists, N-VA), Caroline Gennez and Johan Vande Lanotte (socialist, sp.a).

Current Prime Minister Yves Leterme, heavily criticized for not having realized his promised program (i.e solution for BHV and State Reform), takes a step back and will pass the torch to current CD&V-president Marianne Thyssen. Even if CD&V would win the elections, Leterme declared he will not run for Prime Minister anymore.

Conclusions:

Conclusion
1. Leterme II appeared to be a very unstable government mainly due to a serious lack of confidence between the different political parties and paralyzed by BHV and State Reform, which remain unsolved until today.

2. The upcoming elections are taking place in economically, socially and financially very difficult times and will be organized on the eve of the Belgian Presidency to the EU. They even risk being “unconstitutional” as long as the problem of BHV remains unsolved.

3. The election campaign will focus on State Reform, on which political parties will be forced to take clear and outspoken views on how they plan to solve this issue. A radicalization of positions is not excluded, especially between Francophone and Flemish party heads. Of course other dossiers will be subject of the discussion such as justice, employment, social security and pensions.

4. Belgian people blame politicians for not doing their job properly and not taking care of the “real issues” such as employment, pensions,…Elections risk to increase anti-political behavior.

5. Whether elections will actually bring a solution to the problem of BHV/State Reform remains so far a rhetorical question. Belgium is confronted with a serious, political and institutional crisis. In the end, the biggest challenge and key to success will be to restore confidence and political will between political parties and party heads.

6. As is also the case in the business world, crisis situations are often necessary to make changes and progress. This political crisis might end up with a final answer to the fundamental question “in what kind of a country do we want to live”? A federation? A confederation? A Flemish State? A Walloon State? We can only hope that the final solution will make all Belgians better off.